"We want the world"
Discourse Power | April 23, 2025
Greetings from Jerusalem,
Israel marks tonight and tomorrow Yom HaShoah, remembering the six million Jews murdered by the Nazis and their accomplices and the heroism of survivors. One of them was my beloved grandfather, Sami, who passed away in August.
There is no more fitting time to share today’s article.
This Sunday, a prominent Chinese economist delivered a sweeping, ideologically loaded speech on the US–China trade war and great power rivalry. What began as a provocative, at times insightful, commentary on the US–China trade war quickly spiraled into tin-foil-hat grand theorizing about world order and Western civilization. It culminated in overtly antisemitic tropes, with claims that Western democracy is a sham front for mythical “Jewish financial capital” that controls the Federal Reserve and manipulates US politics and foreign policy to undermine China and the working people of the world.
I’ve written about the rise of anti-Jewish sentiments in China following October 7 in Discourse Power and elsewhere, and have an academic article forthcoming, sadly. Like much of contemporary antisemitism, it reveals more about the speaker and the state of the world than about anything Jews actually say or do.
China is neither alone nor the worst-affected; it is part of a broader global pattern, one that has only intensified in the shadow of the ongoing wars in the Middle East and Ukraine and the great power competition. For instance, this week, the ADL reported a 900% rise in antisemitism in the US over the past decade, with similarly disturbing patterns across Europe, the Muslim world, and as far as Asia. And this is just the beginning of Trump’s second term (tellingly, the Fort Detrick conspiracy made a comeback this week after the White House’s website pushed the COVID-19 lab-leak theory).
At a conference last week, someone asked me whether Jews are physically safer today, in Israel or elsewhere. I told him I didn’t know. What I really felt was: maybe those Mars missions aren’t such a bad idea after all.
Thank you for reading.
Tuvia
“Who does the Fed really represent? The interests of Jewish financial capital…We’re not here to fight over scraps. We want the world. That’s our grand ambition”
On April 20, 2025, senior economist Liu Yuhui delivered remarks on the U.S.–China trade war and future market trends at the Ningbo Bank Private Banking Investment Strategy Meeting, titled “Forecasting for You.”
Full translation of a summary of Liu’s remarks, which were shared by 投资作业本Pro (WeChat ID: touzizuoyeben) on April 22, 2025 (emphases added):
Trump’s Three Miscalculations
Beginning on April 2, Trump made a flurry of moves over ten days, making waves globally. Despite the short timeline, Trump was surprised by three [miscalculations]:
1. First, he didn’t expect that tariffs would reach their peak within a week. What I mean by that is that the G2 (China-US) relationship experienced a trade shock, and under a short span of a week, we’ve reached a hard decoupling, which Trump most likely had not expected.
He hadn’t expected that China would resist head-on. For American suppliers, they likely hadn’t even stocked their warehouses or prepared inventory for a months-long trade battle. He probably hadn’t expected China to stand firm against tariffs with such intensity.
In just one week, it triggered violent swings in the global capital markets. Risk appetite volatility was unleashed at high intensity, striking directly at the soft underbelly of the U.S. economy.
2. He probably didn’t expect that global investors would immediately pull down America’s pants 扒美国的底裤, exposing its weakness. And where is that weakness? The U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds. But these are the very foundation of America’s financial capital—they’re not to be touched.
In past episodes of global financial turmoil, U.S. Treasuries served as a haven asset, rising rapidly, and the dollar would rise too. But this time was different: the surge in global volatility led to a rare “triple kill”: stocks, bonds, and currency all dropped together.
Across the world, people dumped dollars and dollar-denominated assets. The credit and reserve-currency status of the U.S. dollar was threatened - this was probably Trump’s second big miscalculation.
3. The third thing he didn’t expect: the entire Western world didn’t follow his lead. He’d assumed that by applying heavy pressure, traditional allies like Europe, the EU, Japan, and South Korea would immediately fall in line.
But this time, no one bought it.
At first, they may have paid lip service, saying a few nice things. But in actual negotiations, nothing materialized, and some allies even started to “beautify” 美化 China. When the U.S. proposed an “anti-China alliance,” hoping other countries would line up with it, everyone refused.
The Repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma
Why didn’t they go along with it? The answer is simple: today’s situation is not a one-shot prisoner’s dilemma. You may know the classic version: Two thieves are caught and interrogated separately by the police, and in the end, each rats out the other for personal gain. That’s a single-round prisoner’s dilemma.
But today’s geopolitical game is a repeated prisoner’s dilemma. Everyone is calculating: Is the short-term benefit Trump is offering worth abandoning the traditional trade rules we all follow? Can his short-term promises compensate for what I stand to lose? Everyone’s doing the math.
They’re also thinking: how long can your political momentum last? If you [i.e., the US president] have power for only another year or so, and by next summer you become a lame duck who can’t do anything, why should I abandon widely beneficial, long-standing rules for someone with such a short political horizon? I know I won’t.
Also, Trump’s character profile is a problem. His persona is one of turning on people without warning. In the eyes of Biden and the deep state, he’s a fickle rogue who changes his mind every other day, and the damage this causes is enormous.
That’s why no one followed him this time, and that, too, may have surprised him. He wanted a quick, decisive victory, but didn’t expect that everything would go wrong, and everything did turn into the worst-case scenario.
The Decline of the Dollar
The escalating global conflict we are witnessing today reflects one significant shift: China's growing dominance in the global supply chains over the last two decades.
As of today, China accounts for 35% of the global supply chain. In another five years, by 2030, that figure will have risen to 45%.
What kind of structure are we dealing with now? The combined share of the second to tenth-largest manufacturing countries doesn’t equal China’s share. That’s the global landscape.
So China’s dominance in the supply chain is real [turns to English] POWER – [back to Chinese] you can translate that as “hegemony” 霸权. It’s increasingly incompatible with the U.S. dollar–led global wealth distribution system. The dollar can no longer sustain this distribution model, and its capacity is depleting.
The momentum of global trade flows is drying up, and so is the momentum for reshoring them back to the U.S. It’s precisely because of this contradiction that today’s conflicts are becoming more acute. But the underlying logic of the world remains unchanged.
An Unprecedented Ideological War Within the West
When Trump was elected last year, I said something that went viral: Biden’s enemy is undoubtedly us, those of us whose values and ideologies oppose his. But Trump’s enemy is Biden, not us.
What we’re seeing is just the surface. Within this broader context, we must be prepared for a sudden 180-degree reversal - and not be surprised when it happens. Because every reversal, every compromise, every sharp U-turn - they all serve the goal of helping Trump and the MAGA right-wing gain the upper hand in this historic moment of ideological confrontation in the West. That kind of reversal is entirely possible.
Let me explain the backdrop in layperson’s terms. These days, America - and indeed the entire Western world - is undergoing an unprecedented ideological civil war. On one side, we have the political left, claiming to represent democracy, freedom, and shared traditional values. These are the so-called deep state, the Washington swamp.
This group has been in power for nearly 70 years, or certainly more than half a century. Since World War II, the left has essentially held the stage, not just in America, but across the entire West.
And the right? That’s the conservative force represented by Trump and MAGA. Today, the ideological clash between these two forces has become the most central conflict in the world, because it concerns nothing less than the survival of Western civilization itself. That’s how high the stakes are.
For us in China, it’s crucial that we understand this and that we master and strategically apply this understanding.
Inflation: The Shackles Around Trump’s Neck
So, under this broader backdrop, we must reassess the powerful constraint clamped around Trump’s neck. You could say this shackle, as the media jokingly calls it lately, is no joke at all.
Trump is a loudmouth. He brags about holding all the cards, all the chips. But he doesn’t realize that our response tells him directly: “All your cards are made in China.” An apt metaphor.
Trump is an extremely shrewd dealmaker. He wrote a book back in 1985 called The Art of the Deal, where he explained - just like he does now - how to play a bad hand and still bluff your way through. Watching him from afar, we can see that some people are very good at this game.
What’s a master strategist? Someone who can take a bad hand and play it to stunning effect, and maybe even flip the table. That’s the kind of player Trump is. But once you see through his cards, the game can’t be turned around.
So what are Trump’s hidden cards? That powerful constraint around his neck. And what is that constraint? It’s the weakest point that most terrifies the will of capital.
In the West, outcomes are not decided by votes or public opinion, but are rather hammered into place by the will of capital. And what terrifies capital most? Inflation.
Inflation drives up long-term interest rates. High long-term rates trigger extreme volatility in dollar-denominated risk assets, which leads to what we call a triple kill: stocks, bonds, and currency all falling together. After that, political constraints kick in – and that’s when the trap is set. What is its most direct manifestation? Whether the right-wing capital behind Silicon Valley will abandon Trump. Because they are the main funders of MAGA.
The Coming Desertion of Trump
Not even one year of Trump being back in power, innovation capital has suffered a deep bear market and massive market cap losses. (These tech investors, the right wing of Silicon Valley, represent enormous wealth in the U.S. They are the elite of the financial frontier.)
People like Elon Musk sometimes end up as the sucker, swallowing losses in silence. Musk charged ahead for two months, and Tesla’s market cap fell by 800 billion yuan. In the end, he helped Trump cut $4 billion in the fiscal budget while everyone was watching the show. Of course, other major players are losing money too.
If the U.S. stock market stays in a bear run for a whole year, this position can’t be defended. By next summer, will they still want to fund him? He costs them too much money. In Western politics, once a political faction loses the backing of its capital patrons, the ones who represent the will of capital, it falls from power.
Lose the midterms, and you fall into the trap of institutional constraint. Next comes brutal political retribution. The left and right in America behave like mortal enemies, with each side wishing the other were dead. Even before Trump was elected in 2023, those people were already trying to take him down.
By the time Trump re-entered the White House, he was already carrying 39 confirmed felony indictments, which was unprecedented in American history.
If Trump loses the midterms next year, then losing the White House four years later is nearly guaranteed. That would prove that the right-wing comeback still couldn’t gain a firm foothold, and the traditional “deep state” in Washington would return. Once restored, they would surely launch political persecution and brutal retribution against the previous wave of right-wing power without question.
The Fed and “Jewish Financial Capital”
Therefore, hasn't a politician like Trump calculated this? Shouldn’t his core logic begin with this reality? Of course, he’s thinking in this direction on how to extend his power, how to hold his ground.
To break free from this shackle, to unlock the whole thing, there’s only one key. And that key is inflation. If inflation isn’t solved, even if U.S. Treasuries collapse, the Federal Reserve might still not intervene.
Only by unlocking inflation, and only then, can the shackle around the neck be removed. If you don’t, the Fed will just stand by and watch. It won’t cut rates. Even in a full-blown Treasury crash, the Fed may still refuse to act. And this is something that many economic analysts and researchers fail to realize.
I’ve read a lot of reports and analyses. The biggest flaw, I think, is a lack of knowledge about Western political and civilizational history. Their understanding is biased. They treat the Fed like a purely economic decision-making body, assuming it will cut rates based on economic downturns. That’s completely unrealistic.
Let me tell you: the Fed takes sides. You must view its decisions through the lens of today’s West-wide ideological battle between the left and the right. Only then will you understand its moves.
Who does the Fed truly represent? It represents the interests of Jewish financial capital. And within the Western ideological landscape, Jewish financial capital is always aligned with the left, not the right.
Why? Because the ceiling of the right wing is Hitler and Mussolini. So, how could Jewish capital ever align with the right? It’s impossible. That’s why this isn’t about who chairs the Fed.
So don’t let media noise brainwash you; don’t fixate on whether Trump will fire Powell. Even if he does, it’s meaningless. Because the person who ends up in that seat is ultimately chosen by Jewish financial capital, not by the president.
“Jewish Capital” Helped Defeat Harris
So now we can understand why the Fed, even as dollar assets are being dumped and its credibility is under threat, remains hands-off. There’s a reason.
Take the Fed’s first rate cut on September 18 last year. Professionally speaking, the U.S. economy was strong at the time, and there was no reason to cut. But the Fed went ahead and slashed rates by 50 basis points anyway; very telling. The goal was clear: to help Kamala Harris ahead of the November 5 U.S. election. But it still didn’t work.
Because the capital behind Musk, that is, Silicon Valley tech investment class, chose sides. And in the end, they lost. History made its decision. Nothing can be done about that.
So at this point, we must accept that the Fed has a position. Why isn’t it cutting rates now? Because Jewish capital like George Soros is actively shorting the market, they shorted Tesla heavily and made a fortune.
Even Warren Buffett, whom we call the “God of Stocks”, represents Jewish capital [he isn’t Jewish]. Charlie Munger was Jewish [he wasn’t]. Why are they holding so much cash? There’s a reason: they are the short sellers.
The Only Way Forward: Co-Governance with China
So, looking at the full logic and overall picture, I once told a joke - before the trade and tariff wars even began: The only one in the world who could truly help Trump and the MAGA movement is China, the major power to the East.
No one else can help him. Why is China the only one that can untie the knot? Because it all boils back to the master lock: inflation.
How can the United States break free from the noose that is around its neck and alleviate inflation? China is the only place that the logic leads, and that path can be summed up in one word: gǒu 苟.
In official documents, they describe it as finding the correct way to coexist: “coexistence and co-governance” 彼此相处之道，共存共治. Yet in internet slang, this idea can be summed up in a single character: gǒu苟: to survive together pragmatically.
The Wisdom of the Diamond Sutra
As for the future of the G2 (China and the U.S.), even though the conflict now seems irreconcilable, unravelling it is quite simple. In a way, the Diamond Sutra contains a line full of Chinese wisdom that speaks to this moment: “What you oppose, persists; what you accept, disappears.” Today, we are all enduring suffering. How do we dissolve that suffering? The Diamond Sutra answers:
For the United States, this means accepting reality: accepting the historical force that has driven China’s rise, an inexorable force they cannot undo. If they accept it, we can renegotiate the global order. Pain and conflict will fade. But if they don’t, then we’ll let hard power do the talking until we find a new equilibrium.
So everything I’ve said today boils down to this: Though the situation may appear complex, there is only one way forward. No second path.
We must not rush, especially those of us in business, markets, or investment. Today’s environment is a rare opportunity to “pick up passengers” as China’s core assets back up. Can you grasp it? If you understand the underlying logic of this game, then you can master it. There are many opportunities; huge ones.
For China, this is like the game of Guandan [掼蛋, a popular card game, where your team wins by running out of cards. See Wiki for rules - we’ve seen our cards clearly, and now we get to set the rules and lead the game.
The trade war is an act of self-mutilation 自残, the US is only hurting itself
Who is really being hurt by the U.S.-launched tariff war? The U.S. itself. Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen was right to call it self-harm.
Who is this trade war targeting and destroying? Not the value of Chinese factories, but rather the core value of American multinational capital. Look behind the scenes: Vanguard, BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley - It’s all capital [that’s being sacrificed].
By attacking your supporters, you are making them your adversaries. After that, how long can you remain in that chair? Your team ought to be asking that. What is there to be afraid of, then, if we can see this coming?
You want science and technology to be decoupled from us? It may be done, but we have also seen where it has taken you so far: Those who try to strangulate others end up “castrating themselves” 挥刀自宫.
Why? Because in a modern economy, technology must cycle through the market to function - it's part of a commercial feedback loop. You need market monetization to absorb the high depreciation of tech R&D and to sustain Moore’s Law of iteration. That’s how the business loop works.
If you can’t sustain that loop, then your tech will soon fall into a trap of obsolescence and cutoff. And we’ve already seen this in practice.
So yes, software has consumed the world. But now, manufacturing is consuming software. China takes open-source AI software, treats it like air, then uses cheap hardware to scoop up the profits.
We believe profits are dead, but time is alive. We’re not here to fight over scraps; we want the world. That’s our grand ambition 我不跟你抢钱; 我要的是全世界. 这是我宏大的目标.
So if you ask me to predict how this conflict ends, It will be war that brings peace; a war that halts the war 以战止战.
In just one week, the G2 hit max escalation - a full-blown trade shock, a hard decoupling. This is not a steady state. It can’t last.
So in the end, there will be a deal, even if it’s temporary or partial. Because this “hard break” between the G2 is unsustainable.
The truly strong stocks have already recovered. Where are they traded? They’re in the sectors that will birth future giants: supply chain security, data and communications security, and personnel security.
Final Reflections
Let me leave you with a personal word of advice. These four phrases aren’t mine: “Respond to what comes. Do not chase the future. Do not clutter the present. Leave the past behind” [物来则应，未来不迎，当时不杂，过往不留attributed to late Qing military strategist and reformer Zeng Guofan (1811-1872)].
Don’t be overly anxious about the uncertainties of the future. Just handle the present well, and let the past be the past. History doesn’t reverse. It can’t be undone. Rely on yourself, not others. If we do our part, no one can stop us.
At a meeting earlier this year, Foreign Minister Wang Yi quoted a line from The Smiling, Proud Wanderer [笑傲江湖 a wuxia (martial arts/fantasy) novel by Jin Yong (1924-2018)]. I found it powerful and fitting: “Let them rage like the wind – the breeze may only brush the mountains; Let them roar like the great rivers – the moon still shines on its surface 他强任他强，清风拂山岗；他横由他横，明月照大江.
Link: https://web.archive.org/save/https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2025-04-22/doc-inetyyfe1152430.shtml
Liu was also quoted here, and on the CCP Propaganda Department’s China Daily (the editors were kind enough to omit the “Jewish capital” part), among other platforms.
Playing in the background
Ashes and Dust, written by Yaakov Gilad and composed by Yehuda Poliker (translated lyrics below):
A spring day, the scent of lilac
Drifts among the ruins of your town
A perfect day to cast a line in the river
But inside me, the heart breaks down
There it was and now it’s gone
Your childhood, a little woman’s song
People no one knows by name
Not even a house remains to frame
And if you go, where are you going
Eternity is only ashes and dust
Where are you going, where are you going
Years have passed, but nothing’s been lost
Take a coat, you’ll feel the chill
Pocket money, a sugar pill
If the days grow hard and stark
I hope that I have left a mark
And if this is just another desperate quest
To the hut, the yard, the place of rest
On the tracks of the old nation
There is no one waiting at the station
And if you go, where are you going
Eternity is only ashes and dust
Where are you going, where are you going
Years have passed, but nothing’s been lost
Who will soften your night’s despair
Who will listen to your cry
Who will guard your step as you go down there
Where are you going, where are you going?
Eternity is only ashes and dust.
Where are you going, where are you going?
Years have passed, but nothing’s been lost.
Take a coat
You’ll feel the chill
Tuvia Gering is a cyber-threat intelligence analyst at Planet Nine’s Digital Intelligence Team, a visiting fellow at the Israel-China Policy Center at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), and a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the author’s affiliated organizations.