Discourse Power | July 8, 2022
Pacifying NATO, Angel of Peace cosplay, the millennium enemy, and holy calamity
Three weeks before his invasion of Ukraine, Putin stopped in Beijing as the Winter Olympics' guest of honor, following which Russia and China issued a joint statement on the future of international relations in the "New Era," explicitly criticizing NATO.
Following more than 120 days of bloody war, NATO heads of state met last week in Madrid for a summit that saw the release of a new Strategic Concept. Not only was the “China challenge” identified for the first time, but the PRC was invoked over a dozen times with regard to its "ambitions and coercive policies" that challenge NATO's "interests, security, and values".
The strategic document pointed at China’s “opaque” global strategic ambitions, “malicious hybrid and cyber operations”, and "confrontational rhetoric and disinformation." Likewise, it renounced its close cooperation with Russia and the Sino-Russian joint efforts to undermine the rules-based international order.
And while NATO did not completely reject engagement with the PRC, its leaders pledged to defend their countries' shared values and the rules-based international order. To be sure, the document mentioned preserving freedom of navigation in light of China's expansive claims in the South and East China Seas.
The new Strategic Concept was poorly received in the PRC, to say the least, with the People's Daily International Department column yesterday labeling NATO a "systemic challenge" to global security and stability:
“NATO's efforts to [fabricate] and disseminate lies about China, and hype the so-called "China threat," are driven by the organization's reemerging Cold War mentality and ideological bias. It is just an awkward show staged by the United State to extend NATO’s reach [into] the Asia-Pacific region.”
With that in mind, let's get started on today's Discourse Power.
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Tuvia
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"Don't think for even a second that just because we have nuclear weapons, there will be no war"
Professor Li Haidong, a veteran “US-hand” at Beijing's China Foreign Affairs University (CFAU), where many Chinese diplomats are trained, responds to NATO's new Strategic Concept (see intro) and articulates how China can "fight back."
Excerpts:
“Q: What steps can China take to tackle the numerous challenges NATO is causing?”
Li Haidong: “I have always thought that our diplomatic relations with the US should be evaluated independently of the US. To put it another way, don't count on the US changing its long-standing strategy of so-called “strategic competition” and “confrontation” with China.
“A policy that is set in stone cannot be changed. Whatever we do, there will be no fundamental shift in the US strategic approach to competition and confrontation with China in the foreseeable future; it’s a structural 结构性 challenge.
“The US will employ every strategic tool at its disposal to counter China. America views its alliance system, which it leads, as its most valuable strategic asset, and NATO is the centerpiece of this system.
“Consequently, given that the US regards NATO as its most valuable strategic asset, it will undoubtedly use NATO to address what it considers to be its most dangerous strategic competitor or enemy.
“So what should China do?
“To begin, one of the crucial areas in which we can focus our efforts is to do everything in our power to forge a better, deeper, and broader level of cooperation with the European nations that we can as quickly as possible.
“We should cultivate mutually beneficial relationships with as many European countries as we can. As the US attempts to instigate a major crisis regarding issues of high strategic importance to China in the Asia-Pacific region, this will enable these European countries to provide timely and strong restraints on it from within NATO.
“NATO currently has 30 members and will have added two more members by the end of the year. The opinions of these 30 members on China-related issues are very diverse, and as a result, there are multiple voices within NATO regarding China.
“For example, whereas the US and the UK try to be tough on China, using harsh language, Germany and France are relatively more neutral and moderate. Therefore, China should seize the opportunity to form unbreakable diplomatic ties with these European nations as a key link in the chain that will stop senseless words and deeds which will end up causing European nations to turn against us.
“Second, we must be unwavering in our bottom-line thinking [i.e., adopt a principled position] while keeping an eye on the future. We must be prepared for a major crisis to erupt in regions and on issues of high strategic value for China within the next ten years due to [a provocation by] NATO, the US, or one of their Asia-Pacific allies.
“NATO's capabilities are solidified by manufacturing crises, and since NATO intends to strengthen its global presence and capabilities, it is bound to cause even more upheavals.
“Do not believe for a moment that just because we have nuclear weapons means there will be no war. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is a prime example of how having nuclear weapons could not stop a war from erupting.
“In terms of nuclear weapons, we should, on the one hand, be aware of their strategic role and continue to strengthen the build-up of our own nuclear force, but on the other hand, we should also be ready to enforce our bottom line position.
“Third, the nature of warfare has radically changed. To ensure that we can always win in any situation, we must constantly consider and quickly adapt to the most recent forms of warfare.
“Fourth, China needs to develop and maximize a network of countries with its neighbors, namely the majority of Asia-Pacific nations, with more strategic mutual trust, closer economic ties, higher mutual trust on security issues, and warmer people-to-people exchanges.
“This means that if the US were to "Asia-Pacificize" NATO or if NATO were to force itself on the Asia-Pacific, the vast majority of nations in the region would not want to touch this hot potato 一股祸水 with a ten-foot pole.
“If that were to occur, it would mean that NATO's Asia-Pacificization process would be delayed due to its unpopularity with the majority of Asia-Pacific nations. However, delaying is not the same as stopping, and the US and some of its allies will continue to push the process forward.
“Any crisis will be used by NATO to further this objective. And if there isn't one already, it will start one; if there is, it will make it worse by escalating a small issue into a serious threat. It will resort to any means necessary to keep the ball rolling.” (Guancha)
“The US is increasingly resembling the former Soviet Union”
America manipulates its allies to fight imaginary enemies, according to Professor Zheng Yongnian, dean of the Qianhai Institute of International Affairs at The Chinese University of Hong Kong in Shenzhen.
Excerpts:
“China, according to the US, is the only strategic adversary capable and willing to challenge it on a global scale, and in their eyes, a challenge to the US is a challenge to the "rules-based international order." But it begs the question when they say "international order", do they actually mean an American order?
“In China's eyes, all countries, large and small, are part of the global order; in the US' eyes, the global order is the US order. It is the US that is undermining and even abandoning the UN-led system that it helped to establish and in which it has played a key role. This is the logic of American hegemony, which seeks to create enemies in order to sustain itself.
“To some extent, this demonstrates their lack of confidence. When the US still had faith in itself, it proclaimed the "end of history" and that its system was the best and final system in human history; now, when the US system and democracy are in trouble, it shifts the blame to China, Russia, and other countries.
“As I have previously stated, the US is increasingly resembling the former Soviet Union, constantly pushing the boundaries and engaging in exclusionary moves against other countries. Its internal logic has become extremely problematic.
“The only issue for the US is whether an international organization can be conveniently instrumentalized or not, while the extent to which a country obeys American orders determines whether it is an ally or an "enemy."
“During the Cold War, the Soviet Union was the so-called "free world's" adversary, and Europe was happy to have a strong America to lead the way. However, after the Cold War ended, and with no enemies to be found, it decided to make some in order to maintain its hegemony.
“They use the "enemy" framing to scare their allies into submission. Particularly since September 11, the US has increasingly embraced unilateralism, dismissing the UN-led order, decreeing that "you are either with us or against us."
“This is a heavy burden to bear. That is why, under Trump, the US "withdrew" or threatened to "withdraw" from international frameworks and cut funding to allies. This was not without reason. After Biden took office, the only way to reclaim the alliance strategy was to create a straw man in the form of a "common enemy" and establish a "shared threat" designed to convince other countries to go with them.
“NATO strives to secure a lasting peace in Europe," they maintain. However, NATO has not only survived the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact but has since expanded. Russia initially attempted to join NATO but was turned down. Why? Because NATO exists to maintain American hegemony, not to keep the peace.
“It merely masquerades as the Angel of Peace 只是化妆成和平的天使, shouting slogans such as "human rights are above sovereignty," but in reality, think of all the conflicts NATO has caused, including its shelling of Yugoslavia.
“At the last year’s G7 summit, the US led the charge to come up with a strategy to counter the Belt and Road Initiative, and this year it doubled down with $600 billion in infrastructure projects. We sincerely hope that it can keep its word because any initiative that helps third-world and developing countries grow their economies is welcome.
“The problem is that it can't live up to it. Where will the money come from? So many poor countries are now facing food shortages and crises, but this plan only allocates $4.5 billion to address them, which is not even enough to fill the gaps between their teeth. And where is the $600 billion going to come from? Does the US have the money?
“China has no geopolitical conflicts with Europe, and China is a trade powerhouse as long as trade is mutually beneficial. As a result, most European countries continue to prioritize development. People are not stupid; who would want to throw themselves through such a pointless conflict?
“The role NATO has played in the Ukraine crisis is clear to all countries around the world. What else is there besides using Ukraine as a proxy and turning it into cannon fodder?
“All of the countries represented at this year's NATO summit have very close economic and trade ties with China and cannot afford to cut ties with it.
“The key for China is to avoid falling into the mental trap of the US. While they engage in exclusionary unilateralism, we will engage in inclusive multilateralism.
“Didn't the US say it wanted to "cooperate, compete, and confront" China? In that case, China is more than capable of playing this game. We should definitely cooperate in areas like public health, nuclear non-proliferation, and climate change; we should strive for healthy competition in areas of competition, but we should not be afraid of it.; and in areas of potential confrontation, we should strive to manage the conflict.“ (Xiakedao)
“Modern China is undergoing great changes unseen in a millennium, and it is confronted with a formidable enemy unseen in a thousand years”
Distinguished political scientist Dr. Yan Yilong believes that the Party is not only vital to the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation but also has the answer to many of the political conundrums that human society faces.
Yan is an assistant professor in the school of public policy and management and the assistant dean of the institute for contemporary china studies at the illustrious Tsinghua University.
Excerpts:
“Modern China is undergoing great changes unseen in a millennium, and it is confronted with a formidable enemy unseen in a thousand years 近代中国遭遇数千年未有之大变局，遭逢数千年未遇之强敌.
“Many good men with lofty ideals have tried to find a way to save the country when our defeat in the War of Jiawu [First Sino-Japanese War, 1894–1895] effectively sealed the fate of the westernization movement. The Hundred Days of Reform and the Preparation of Constitutionalism, among other measures of the Qing Court, have also failed to halt its demise [in 1912].
“The Republic of China's decision to adopt a Western system of government was clearly the wrong remedy to the country's ills, as the country devolved into chaotic havoc between rival warlords.
“Why have so many prescriptions 药方 for national salvation proved to be a failure? Fundamentally, they failed to address the issue of how to organize and mobilize the Chinese people.
“Only a political movement capable of mobilizing hundreds of millions of people was capable of galvanizing the people's awesome might, empowering them to take charge of their own destiny through the systemic crisis that has plagued the Chinese nation since modern times.
“The Communist Party of China (CPC) has been central to the recent transformation of the Chinese nation from decline to rejuvenation. And it was with the CPC and the establishment of the People's Republic of China (PRC) that China reversed its steady spiral into the dark abyss of history.
“In recent history, China's GDP continued to decline as a share of the world until the establishment of the PRC, when the trend was reversed. By 2014, China's GDP had surpassed that of the United States in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP), and by 2030, it will have overtaken it as the world's largest economy.
“With a life expectancy of 35 years, lower than France in 1820, China had one of the lowest GDPs per capita in the world in 1949. However, by 2021, China's GDP per capita surpassed $12,000, putting it on track to join the ranks of high-income economies.
“In contrast to the United States, where life expectancy was 78.8 years in 2019 and 1.8 years in 2020 before falling to 77 years as a result of COVID, life expectancy in China has already reached 77.3 years and will rise by 1 year during the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021–2025).
“Accordingly, China's life expectancy per capita has already surpassed that of the United States, despite the fact that its GDP per capita is less than one-fifth that of the latter.
“The Chinese people and the Chinese nation have chosen the CPC, and the CPC has not failed the Chinese people and the Chinese nation. The CPC's ability to carry out the historic task of changing the course of the Chinese nation from decline to prosperity is primarily due to the fact that it is a heretofore unprecedented new kind of political entity.
“To fully appreciate the CPC, it is necessary to shatter 打破 the prevalent myths of Western political science about party theory and to build a new typology of party theory 政党理论 and a novel classification of political groups 政党类型学分类. The CPC differs fundamentally from Western electoral systems. It is profoundly different from what they call a “one-party system”, and it is also not the same as what they deem to be a "Leninist party."
“In America, for example, the two-party system follows the "three no's" principle 三无政党: no official agenda, only a campaign agenda; no strict organizational discipline, only loose coordination; and no official membership, only some people who register during elections.
“The CPC, on the other hand, is a party that operates by the "three high's" principle 三个高度: a political agenda with a high sense of purpose, a high degree of organizational discipline, and high levels of loyalty between its members.
“In essence, the two are diametrically opposed. In the United States, the two parties are election-oriented, with all of their resources and actions focused on winning votes.
“The CPC is a new type of political party with a clear political agenda that represents all people, and by leading, organizing, and mobilizing the people, it is capable of responding to challenges, constantly evolving with the times, and realizing their great mission together.
“The CPC is people-oriented 具人民性, advanced 先进性, mission-oriented 使命性, holistic 整体性, pioneering 先锋性, organizational 组织性, revolutionary 革命性, and pragmatic 实践性.
"Not only is the CPC's leadership China's greatest systemic superiority 制度优势, but it also contributes to the advancement of human political civilization by providing solutions to many of humanity's political problems.
“Many world leaders have stated that the CPC has taught their country valuable lessons. Former Brazilian President Lula de Silva, for example, claimed that China was able to beat COVID-19 so quickly because it has a powerful political party and government. That is something neither Brazil nor any other nation possesses.
“Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić stated that the CPC taught his Serbian Progressive Party the importance of uniting people, political parties, and state institutions.” (Guancha)
"The Western Roman Empire has company as the US-led West heads toward anarchy...The United States Supreme Court is protecting guns on the one hand while fighting women on the other; this has severely harmed the country's soft power and will benefit China"
Mr. Song Luzheng, a researcher at Shanghai's China Institute of Fudan University who lives in France, responds to the US Supreme Court's decision to end the constitutional right to abortion with a prophecy of Job, foreseeing the implosion of the US-led Western world.
Excerpt:
“While the Western system today can still accommodate different classes, it cannot end the antagonism between them. It is comparable to the fall of the Western Roman Empire, which allowed barbarians to live among them, guard its borders, appoint them as officials, and even command armies, only to be eventually wiped out by them.
"So, from Trump's election to the January 6 Capitol attack to the ongoing racial school shootings to today's Supreme Court decision [on abortions], America has witnessed a series of shocking events that have struck the entire world.
“And yet, this is just the beginning. It's not just in America; a global calamity and historical setbacks that will affect the entire West are still to come, and they will be far more severe than anything that anyone could have ever imagined."
“At long last, the Western Roman Empire has some company.” (Guancha)
Playing in the Background
Discourse Power is written by Tuvia Gering, a research fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub, and a Tikvah’s Krauthammer Fellow, specializing in Chinese security and foreign policy, and emergency and disaster management. Any views expressed in this newsletter, as well as any errors, are solely those of the author. Follow Tuvia on Twitter @GeringTuvia