Discourse Power | July 14, 2022
Stuck in the MENA with U.S.A.
Greetings from Jerusalem, where Joe Biden launched his first trip to the region as US president.
Today, the American President and Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid were virtually joined by the leaders of India and the United Arab Emirates for the first time under the I2U2 framework to discuss joint initiatives for food security and clean energy, among other areas of mutual interest.
Additionally, a Joint Declaration on the US-Israel Strategic Partnership was adopted today, in which the US pledged to "never to allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon, and that it is prepared to use all elements of its national power to ensure that outcome."
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Before we begin, you can now watch a full recording of the fantastic China in the Middle East and Africa international conference that took place in Jerusalem, Israel, on June 22, 2022, jointly organized by the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS) and the Notre Dame Keough School of Global Affairs.
I would also like to recommend an article written about Xi's Global Security Initiative (GSI) and the shifting global order that I had the privilege of contributing to by my senior Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub colleague Michael Schuman for The Atlantic.
Excerpts:
“Chinese policy makers believe that the current global order is geared toward U.S. hegemony, that … the world’s greatest power is doing all it can in order to contain and suppress and encircle China,” Tuvia Gering, a research fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, told me. “They need to lay the infrastructure for a more China-centric, or at least a less U.S.-, Western-centric, world.”
Schuman: “For some world leaders—especially the autocratic sort—the GSI may be appealing. Many would prefer to be free of American standards of human rights and democracy, and Washington’s preaching and pressure to adhere to them.
“In China’s version of a world order, national leaders are allowed to do more or less as they please within their own borders. The GSI thus has the potential to become the ideological backbone of an alternative, China-led system that brings together illiberal states in opposition to the U.S.
”Like all great powers (including the U.S.), China is more interested in setting rules than following them.”
Last but not least, I'd like to extend a warm welcome to the new subscribers and encourage academics, columnists, and editors to cite/hyperlink Discourse Power in their own work, should they choose to use any of the featured articles.
Thank you for reading,
Tuvia
Top Picks
“America and its Western allies continue to wield numerous tools of suppression and destruction. They will continue to use all of these tools to smear, demonize, and stifle China's development. In this regard, we must be extremely vigilant”
Professor Li Weijian, Director of the Institute for Foreign Policy Studies at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (SIIS) and an Executive Director of the China Association for Middle East Studies, discusses the myths and major-power competition that underpin Biden's visit to the Middle East.
Excerpts:
“Both before and after he took office, Biden pledged to change Trump's Middle East strategy and put forth a few new ideas. However, aside from the deliberate or unintentional alienation of Israel and Saudi Arabia and the restarting of the negotiations for an Iranian nuclear deal—which had been restarted but was abruptly shelved—most of the Biden administration's purported policy changes have so far been limited to lip service.
“This demonstrates that the Biden administration is constrained in the Middle East by domestic and foreign factors, with available resources already stretched thin. It also reflects the Middle East's declining status in US global strategy, as well as its lower priority in the Biden administration's agenda.
“It is clear that Biden's decision to travel to the Middle East at this time is driven by considerations other than "breaking the ice" and engaging in dialogue about Middle East issues.
Biden’s Motives 动机:
“First, the US is hell-bent 铁心 on engaging in an all-out competition 全面博弈 with and containment of both China and Russia on a global scale as its main strategic rivals and adversaries. The Middle East will ultimately see the impacts of this dynamic.
”On the surface, the US has continued to detach itself from the Middle East over time, but in practice, it appears to be more of a military nature. The US is likely going to maintain its presence in the Middle East in a slightly different way, judging by how intensely it has been playing the game and competing with China and Russia lately.
”In order to impede and undermine China's cooperation with Middle Eastern countries' development under the BRI and in the high-tech sector, the US may decrease its investment in traditional security issues while increasing it in regional cooperation and development areas where China has achieved positive results.
”At the same time, it will use some Arab countries' security reliance to limit Russia's influence in some regional hotspots. According to reports, the Biden administration requested $6 billion in Foreign Military Assistance in the FY2023 budget, the majority of which is earmarked for the Middle East and North Africa.
”Following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the US requested that some Arab countries "pick sides" and cooperate with its sanctions against Russia. Although the Arab countries declined, the US may use various means to coerce and induce these countries to alienate relations with China and Russia if the war between Russia and Ukraine continues.
“Second, the US has spent years attempting to discredit China's mutually beneficial cooperation with Middle Eastern countries, constraining its growing influence in the region.
”It has also continued to put pressure on some Arab countries to abandon Huawei's 5G technology and other Chinese high-tech products and has even asked some Arab countries to cancel contracts for Chinese projects currently underway in order to use American products and cooperate with the US instead.
“For the past six months, the Biden administration has been engaged in global diplomacy, attempting to piece together so-called international alliances and partnerships to contain China and Russia, and the Middle East will be included in this process sooner or later.
”Indeed, from Blinken's participation in the Arab-Israeli Summit in Israel on March 27, this year, to Biden's trip to the Middle East, where he will attend the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf summit in Saudi Arabia with Egypt, Iraq, and Jordan (GCC+3), the US is clearly attempting to influence the formation of new "regional quasi-alliances."
“Finally, many domestic analysts have questioned the ability of the United States and its Western allies to successfully launch a series of initiatives and action plans aimed at countering China's growth.
“Indeed, times have changed, and the days in which the US could deceive the masses in the global political arena with a hand tied behind its back 一手遮天 while guiding and dominating the global economy with Europe are long gone.
“It will soon realize that forcing other countries to abandon their own interests and form a coalition to contain China is easier said than done 谈何容易!
“We should not overestimate the US' ability to rally support and mobilize other countries, but we should also not underestimate its destructive power. The US's subversive damage to the global and regional order during the Trump administration and the detrimental effects it had are still being felt today.
“America and its Western allies continue to wield numerous tools of suppression and destruction. They will continue to use all of these tools to smear, demonize, and stifle China's development. In this regard, we must be extremely vigilant.” (The Paper)
"A desperate visit"
Mr. Gu Zhenglong, Director of the Shanghai International Studies University's (SISU) Middle East Studies Institute (MESI) and a veteran Xinhua Middle East correspondent to the region, contends that Biden's current visit to the Middle East represents a turning point and a return to realpolitik after a year and a half in which the Middle East was neglected in favor of the pivot to Asia and containing China's rise.
Excerpt:
”Biden's upcoming Middle East trip could be described as a return to his administration's focus on the region and its problems. This return, however, is not a reflection of his diplomatic philosophy, but rather a desperate response to reality, specifically the current state of the conflict in Ukraine and the stalemate in the Iranian nuclear deal negotiations.
“Nonetheless, the visit provides an excellent opportunity for Arab-American dialogue to re-establish mutual trust and open up new avenues for cooperation between the two sides in pursuit of their mutual interests.” (Cfisnet 国际网)
China Daily: Biden will try to undermine the long-standing bilateral ties China has upheld with Middle Eastern nations by strengthening ties between Israel and Arab nations through the Abraham Accords
A China Daily editorial cautions Middle Eastern nations that the United States seeks to sour relations between China and them, adding that whatever goal Biden claims for his trip, it is primarily designed to persuade Saudi Arabia to increase its oil output to ease US inflation and improve his approval ratings.
Excerpts (lightly edited for clarity):
“What countries in the Middle East should be concerned about is how Biden's sowing the seeds of a new Cold War will impact regional ties and relations with countries outside the region.
“The signing of a memorandum of understanding on cooperation on building a 5G cellular network in Saudi Arabia by Riyadh and Washington last week is clearly a move to “box out” China's 5G champion Huawei.
“It is also an indication that Washington is attempting to persuade countries in the region that are cooperating with China under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to hedge their bets.
“There is trouble wherever the US is present. Look at the mess it has caused in various parts of the world. Countries in the Middle East should never forget the turmoil that the US has caused in the region over the last several decades.
“If the US continues to view the region through the lens of its competition with China, it will only bring more problems to the region.” (China Daily)
“As the US steps back from the Middle East, regional countries are increasingly looking east and moving east”
In their analysis of US President Biden’s first trip to the Middle East, Chinese scholars Li Shaoxian and Ding Long argue that American efforts to promote the "China threat" will fail because the countries in the region depend on China.
Mr. Li is the director of Ningxia University's China-Arab Research Institute and the former vice president of the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), and Professor Ding teaches at the Shanghai International Studies University's (SISU) Middle East Studies Institute (MESI).
Excerpt:
“Will Biden's visit be successful? Li Shaoxian noted that Biden faces challenges in achieving a number of significant objectives:
“First, Saudi Arabia no longer has much energy capacity to spare. It will be challenging to close the gap in the global crude oil supply caused by sanctions against Russia, even if they meet Biden's demands and ramp up production to 100%.
“Additionally, Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern nations are aware of how well the OPEC and OPEC+ cooperation mechanisms protect the interests of oil-producing nations and guarantee global energy security, and they will not seek to take any actions that fundamentally undermine them.
“Second, the US plan to form a "mini-NATO in the Middle East" to combat Iran has alarmed the countries in the region. According to Li Shaoxian, the majority of Middle Eastern nations—outside of Israel, Bahrain, and a few others—are not eager to place the conflict with Iran on top of their agenda. The region's overall security will be harmed if new security concerns are raised.
“Third, whether the US can streamline the normalization process between Israel and Arab nations is another area of uncertainty. "The fact that Tel Aviv [sic] will be able to advance relations with Arab nations despite Israel's hardline approach on the Palestinian issue is a core contradiction 一个核心矛盾. Even though many Arab nations are working to improve their relations with Israel, they must all take the general public's opinion into consideration."
“Fourth, Biden's attempt to peddle the "China threat" will not succeed either. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has long been backed and promoted by Middle Eastern nations.
”Regional countries have universally welcomed China's advocacy of promoting peace through development and contributing to security in the Middle East. As the US steps back from the Middle East, regional countries are increasingly “looking east” 向东看 and “moving east” 向东走.
“According to Ding Long, given the high price of oil and the global energy crisis, Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region now have a great deal more strategic autonomy and self-assurance to challenge 叫板 the US.
“Second, following the pivot in the US strategic focus, regional allies' faith in the US security commitment has been shaken. For example, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have been repeatedly attacked by Yemeni Houthi drones, but the US lackluster response has left them disappointed.
“Furthermore, over time, the interests of the Middle Eastern countries have become more diverse, triggering a wave of "reconciliation" and the emergence of a new geopolitical pattern in the region. Their stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict is also more aloof, refusing to dance to the tune of the US.
“These countries are more concerned with the region's long-term development. Finally, the Middle Eastern countries are well aware of America's hypocritical display of affection, in which they are only "friends" when the US needs them 用人朝前，不用人朝后.” (Liberation Daily)
"Hundreds of thousands of people have died, and millions more have become refugees. What the US has done has seriously violated human rights in the Middle East, and the true nature of "American-style human rights" has been revealed"
An article on "America’s wrongdoings in the Middle East" was published in today's edition of the People's Daily by the Xinhua News Agency’s Mideast Regional Bureau to mark President Biden's first visit to the region.
The article offers a laundry list of accusations against the US, branding it a "destabilizer" 动乱制造者 and an "abuser of sanctions" 制裁滥用者, assigning the US sole responsibility for all problems in the region over the past decades:
“Invasions, bombings, inciting domestic uprisings, supporting proxy wars, providing arms and ammunition, and training anti-government militias are just some of the ways that America has wreaked havoc in the Middle East under the guise of "protecting human rights" while blatantly violating the same rights, resulting in severe humanitarian catastrophes for the local populace.” (People’s Daily)
Playing in the Background
I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that Biden's visit coincided with the release of the fourth season of Fauda:
Discourse Power is written by Tuvia Gering, a research fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub, and a Tikvah’s Krauthammer Fellow, specializing in Chinese security and foreign policy, and emergency and disaster management. Any views expressed in this newsletter, as well as any errors, are solely those of the author. Follow Tuvia on Twitter @GeringTuvia