Discourse Power | August 25, 2022
The visitor, the rise of the (Middle) East and the decline of the West, and whitewashing terrorism
Lesson for China: Today’s Ukraine is not tomorrow’s Taiwan
A brief commentary I penned for the Atlantic Council to mark the sixth month of the Russian invasion
Chinese strategists believe that America’s strategic ambiguity over Taiwan is dead in all but name, as demonstrated by Biden’s repeated “gaffes” about Washington’s willingness to defend the island through force and US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s recent visit to the island democracy.
They believe that if a war breaks out in the Strait, Washington will “fight till the last Taiwanese”—just as it has been seen as doing in Ukraine against Russia—in a proxy war to contain Beijing, mobilizing its allies along the way to support the effort.
Yet even while the West has been able to inflict painful punishment on Russia’s economy, Putin’s war shows that sanctions are a double-edged sword, especially when it comes to China, the world’s second-largest economy.
Beijing has been keeping a close eye on European citizens, who are shouldering record-high inflation and surging electricity prices ahead of a potentially very cold winter.
Thus, Chinese officials’ relentless push for economic liberalization serves as more than just a means of gaining from globalization; it also acts as a signal to the West over China’s core interests, warning: “If I go down, you’re going with me.”
From Beijing’s perspective, political, diplomatic, and economic retaliation against pro-independence actions in Taiwan—when coupled with the threat of a total military blockade and China’s nuclear saber-rattling—can serve as a credible deterrent that puts the onus of escalation on the “enemy.”
Beijing will act under the assumption that, in the event of a war in the Taiwan Strait, “time and momentum are on our side,” meaning that the price the Chinese people are willing to pay for Taiwan is significantly higher than that of the Western constituent.
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For more lessons from the war by the Atlantic Council’s team of experts, click here.
Thank you for reading, and if you would spare a moment, please consider telling your friends and coworkers about Discourse Power so that it can keep expanding.
Tuvia
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“Strategic contraction comes at a cost, with the most immediate ramification is a decline in America's influence in the Middle East…Key Middle Eastern regional states have greater strategic autonomy and a growing mistrust of the US”
Biden's first Presidential trip to the Middle East in July "ended awkwardly," writes Professor Niu Xinchun, director of the Institute of Middle East Studies at the China Institutes for Contemporary International Relations (CICIR).
Excerpts:
“The Middle East is not on Biden's diplomatic agenda. The most urgent diplomatic challenge for his administration is the great-power competition, particularly the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, as well as the fact that the US is dealing with skyrocketing prices and an overheating economy.
“Nonetheless, the rise in international oil prices caused by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has resulted in soaring prices in America, compelling Biden to make a visit to the Middle East.
“However, strategic contraction 战略收缩 comes at a cost, with the most immediate ramification is a decline in America's influence in the Middle East. Geoffrey Kemp, Senior Director for Near East and South Asian Affairs on the National Security Council Staff under Reagan, commented recently: "I have never seen the US wield such little influence in the Middle East."
“The US remains the most powerful country, but it is no longer the sole major power that engineers 设计, dominates 主导, and sustains 维护 the Middle East's overall situation.
“Economically, the EU ranks first in the Middle East in terms of trade and investment, followed by China, with the US coming in third. Russia's military influence in Syria and Libya has surpassed that of the US, shattering the long-held American "monopoly" over the region.
“One could argue that Biden's trip to the Middle East represents that of a weak 弱势American president. It is a "reluctant and unwilling" visit at a very bad timing that epitomizes the strategic contraction.”
“The Middle East for Middle Easterners”
“The Middle East effectively became "America's Middle East" after the Cold War when the US adopted a strategy of "large-scale direct intervention". However, since 2011, the Middle East has gone through a period of strategic transition, with Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey, Israel, and other nations gaining strategic autonomy.
“As a result, the Middle East is now becoming a region that is "for Middle Easterners" only. Biden wants to draw the region back into America's global strategic orbit, which runs counter to the tide of the local political situation.
“Israel has always been regarded as America's most reliable ally in the Middle East, and has even been referred to as its "unsinkable aircraft carrier," and protecting Israel's security is one of America's primary concerns.
“But Israel has now taken center stage in Middle Eastern politics and is growing militarily and diplomatically independent. Diplomatically, Israel has normalized relations with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco.
“It has openly approached Saudi Arabia about containing Iran; militarily, Israel has launched air strikes against Palestine, Iran, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and other countries, and has conducted joint military operations in the Sinai Peninsula with Egypt.
“On regional hotspots, Israel is regarded as a "bridgehead" for the US and the West in their efforts to contain 遏制 Iran, a "vanguard" in hemming in Turkey, and a key member of the East Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF).
“However, Israel is openly opposed to the US rejoining the Iran nuclear deal, and frequently strikes Iran in a "shadow war" to undermine the negotiations... Biden's visit to Israel did not resolve this fundamental contradiction between the two countries.“
“Saudi Arabia has also been one of the US's most crucial allies in the Middle East for more than 80 years. Then-Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Faisal declared in 1963, "Other than Allah, we trust the US the most."
“And yet, when Saudi oil facilities were attacked in September 2019, Trump stated, "This was an attack on Saudi Arabia, not on America." The US-Saudi alliance is not what it used to be. US-Saudi relations hit rock bottom after Biden took office.
“Not only has the US prioritized "human rights issues" in its relations with Saudi Arabia and labeled it a "pariah state," Biden refused to speak directly with the Saudi Crown Prince to show his disdain.
“He’d had no issues shaking hands with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas or former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during meetings, but with the Saudi Crown Prince, he was only willing to "fist bump."
“The Saudis are concurrently unwilling to appear weak and instead are looking to "return the favor" 还以颜色 to the US in order to demonstrate their preference for strategic independence.
“Biden pleaded and protested repeatedly, urging Saudi Arabia to increase oil production after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but no one listened, and Saudi did not budge.”
“Arab-Israeli peace talks have taken the place of Palestinian-Israeli talks”
“After the UAE, Bahrain, and Israel normalized their relations in Washington with the signing of the Abraham Accords at the end of 2020, the US took a radical shift in its approach to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, moving away from pursuing resolution first and addressing the Arab-Israeli problem second to the extreme opposite.
“Every American presidential visit to Palestine and Israel in the last 30 years has been accompanied by an enthusiastic push for peace talks. Biden is the first exception, and his administration may be the only one in recent memory that has not proposed a new scheme for Palestinian-Israeli peace talks.
“The "highlight" of Biden's Middle East trip was his participation in the Jeddah Security and Development Summit, which was held in the Saudi seaside city on July 16 and attended by the leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, as well as Egypt, Jordan, and Iraq. Its goal was to promote security cooperation between the US, Israel, and Arab countries.
“Military cooperation between Israel and Arab countries has long existed, but it has become more open in recent years, with the number of countries and areas of cooperation expanding.
“On June 20, Israeli Defense Minister Gantz stated that Israel is in the process of forming a US-sponsored "Middle East Air Defense Alliance" (MEADA) and that it has already foiled "attempted attacks" from Iran.
“At the summit, Israel requested that the US announce the establishment of MEADA, which would integrate US forces based in the Middle East with missile launchers, radar systems, satellites, and ground sensors from Arab countries and Israel. The anti-Iranian regional missile defense system would be coordinated by the US Central Command (CENTCOM).
“MEADA, however, only exists in vision. Two obstacles stand in the way of Israel's security cooperation with Arab countries: First, it is unlikely that Arab nations and Israel will forge an alliance as long as the Palestinian issue is unresolved; second, the GCC nations are sharply divided over Iran, with Qatar, Oman, and Kuwait refusing to take the same position as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain.” (World Knowledge Journal)
“It is clear that the US is still willing to lend its knife to anyone willing to kill on its behalf, especially if its Middle Eastern allies can cover the costs in blood and treasure”
In the wake of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, major power competition is anticipated to intensify, while the importance of the Middle East will undoubtedly rise, according to Mr. Li Shaoxian, a nationally renowned Middle East scholar affiliated with Ningxia University.
Mr. Li is the director of the Chinese-Arab Research Institute at Ningxia University. In his previous position, he served as vice president of CICIR, a top think tank in Beijing affiliated with China's Ministry of State Security (MSS) and overseen by the Party's Central Committee.
You may remember his name from the antisemitic remarks he made about the all-powerful “Jewish capital” that I featured in a previous issue.
Excerpts:
“First, let's look at the US. Since President Obama proposed the so-called strategic "pivot to Asia," the US has continued to withdraw from the Middle East. It goes without saying that the underlying assumption is that the US is not at all concerned about other forces filling the "vacuum."
“Russia's Middle East [strategy] has the will but not the strength, whereas Europe lacks both. However, based on Biden's first trip to the Middle East, we can see that America is concerned and paying attention to the region. Biden has made it clear that he will not allow China, Russia, let alone Iran, to fill the "vacuum," as this would set a ["dangerous"] precedent.
“I don't think the US will significantly renew its commitment to the Middle East, but Biden's behavior suggests that the US is paying more attention to the region. It is clear that the US is still willing to lend its knife to anyone willing to kill on its behalf 借刀杀人, especially if its regional allies can cover the costs in blood and treasure.
“But, as some people wrote online, the allies are becoming increasingly disobedient 不听话: "It'll be much harder carrying the team going forward, ["after losing their will" 现在的队伍不好带 - A reference to Feng Xiaogang's blockbuster A World Without Thieves]."
“Let us now turn our attention to Russia. As the Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues and the US and Europe's hostility toward Russia persists, Russia's national development will be forced to pivot to the east and the south.
“This will mark a significant shift. By "East," I mean East Asia and China, whereas the key to the "South" is in the Middle East, with Iran and India as the main entry points. It is clearly evident that the Middle East will play a significant role in Russia's future national development.
“Now, consider Europe. Since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the US and Europe have imposed unprecedented sanctions on Russia, and Europe has been experiencing energy supply issues due to its reliance on Russian oil and gas. Indeed, Europe's reliance on Russian energy can be traced back to the 1970s, when an oil embargo on Middle Eastern oil-producing countries gradually formed.
“In other words, Europe's main energy source 40 years ago was actually the Middle East, but due to the oil crisis and energy security concerns, Russia has gradually become one of Europe's main energy sources.
“The river, as the saying goes, flows eastward for 30 years and westward for 30 years, and so it goes 三十年河东，三十年河西. By the end of this year, Europe will have stopped all Russian oil imports and will significantly reduce Russian gas imports next year. The Qataris are about to be trampled by the Europeans 被欧洲人踏破 flocking to the Middle East.
“It also goes without saying that the Middle East is important to China. It is a crucial region for the development of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as well as one of China's primary energy sources, accounting for more than 70% of our oil imports.
“This is especially true in light of the great power competition that the Americans are mentioning, which, I'm afraid, may make the BRI our only viable path 一条生路 moving forward.
“With the world's major power forces all paying increased attention to the Middle East, the room for maneuver for Middle Eastern players is, naturally, expanding. Of course, their policies and attitudes will change as a result.
“For example, as major oil-producing countries begin to look in all directions, Turkey may gain more leverage to wield its influence 长袖善舞, and Europe and the US will work harder to reach a new Iranian nuclear deal. Iran's environment is expected to ease, but this is not the case for Israel, whose wiggle room may be limited compared to two or three years ago.” (Jinri Toutiao)
“Israel has undoubtedly benefited the most from the US dominance over Middle Eastern affairs. It has clung to and skillfully exploited the US-manufactured crisis with Iran”
While whitewashing terrorism by Iran and the Palestinians, prominent MENA scholar Prof. Li Weijian contends that "there will be no true peace and tranquility in the Middle East unless the Palestinian issue is resolved," and that cunning Israel and the omnipotent US "tricked" Arab states into normalizing relations with the Jewish State.
![外院]李伟建研究员做客第八期“新丝路大讲堂”-南京大学金陵学院学工处](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb562e2ab-bc82-48d1-bdad-2151d334e70c_1024x682.jpeg "外院]李伟建研究员做客第八期“新丝路大讲堂”-南京大学金陵学院学工处")
Prof. Li is the director of the Institute for Foreign Policy at the Shanghai Institute of International Studies (SIIS) and vice president of the Middle East Society of China.
Excerpts from Li's article for China.com, which was published on August 14:
“Israel and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) recently engaged in military combat, which ended with a temporary ceasefire mediated by Egypt. What happens next? How will it impact the Middle East? Before we can answer these questions, we need to understand the Middle East's historical context.
“As we all know, for nearly half a century after Israel's establishment, the principal contradiction 主要矛盾 in the Middle East was between Arab countries and Israel, and the Palestinian issue was at the core 核心 issue of the Middle East.
“However, over the last decade or so, the Palestinian issue has been constantly overshadowed by a new geopolitical conflict, with the shady influence 影子 of the United States and Israel written all over it.
“The Arab world's once-strong collective will on the Palestinian issue has also been severely weakened by the US and Israel's constant polarization and disintegration efforts.
“Although Biden promised to correct Trump's Middle East policy, particularly toward Palestinians, his trip shows that he is not in the least concerned about them.
“Instead, the Biden administration is attempting to construct a new regional architecture that will include Israel and Arab countries in order to satisfy [Americac’s] urge to implement its so-called "strategic great power competition" 大国博弈战略.
“Numerous hotspot issues in the Middle East have emerged over the years under the dominance 主导 and influence 影响 of the US, diverting international and regional attention away from the Palestinian question.
“And, before long, the Palestinians were no longer the main focus of Arab League summits. This is particularly true now that the US has been successful in luring 拉动 some Arab nations closer to Israel on the pretext of fending off the Iranian threat. Today, the Palestinian issue has been "marginalized" for all intents and purposes 切切实实地“被边缘化”了.
“Israel has undoubtedly benefited the most from the US dominance over Middle Eastern affairs. It has clung to and skillfully exploited the US-manufactured crisis with Iran.
“Israel has been inflating the Iran threat for many years. In recent years, in addition to continuing its war of words with Iran, it has sent warplanes to Syria to bomb ostensibly Iranian targets.
“It seeks to draw attention to the Iranian issue by continuing to incite regional and global public opinion in order to relieve its own pressure vis-à-vis the Palestinians.
“According to some analysts, the recent operation was both a pre-emptive military strike against the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and an "attempt" by [Israeli Prime Minister] Yair Lapid to lay the groundwork for the national elections in November.
“With the exception of Iran, regional countries have not reacted all that strongly to the most recent round of hostilities, with each largely going about its own business.
“This is the current geopolitical reality of the Middle East. This means that the outcome of this round will have little impact on the development of the situation in the Middle East.” (China Internet Information Center)
Excerpts from an interview with Prof. Li Weijian on August 19 after the Wednesday announcement of a rapprochement between Israel and Turkey and the return of their ambassadors to Tel Aviv and Ankara:
“Turkey-Israel relations are rapidly thawing due to both sides' desire to improve relations [for the reasons listed below]:
“To begin, the Kurdish issue has somewhat subsided, while the Palestinian issue has been increasingly marginalized. The controversy that started the Turkish-Israeli dispute has cooled off, relatively speaking.
“In terms of the geopolitical environment, after the repeated turmoil and disorder of the past, geopolitical competition in the Middle East has eased, and a relatively stable new regional order is being reshaped.
“Such a new trend exists not only at the political level but also at the level of economic cooperation and development. In concrete terms, there is a "power overdraft" after a long period of turmoil.
“When coupled with the impacts of COVID on the global economy's recovery. The Middle East countries are increasingly aware that the days of "getting rich" with oil alone are over, and that collaborating with more nations and regions is essential to their future prospects.
“Lastly, in recent years, Israel has normalized relations with a number of Middle Eastern countries through US mediation. Israel wants to bring in more countries and regions in order to isolate Iran as much as possible.
“Middle Eastern countries, on the other hand, would like to see a more stable regional environment with more opportunities for cooperation and development.” (Xinmin Evening News)
Playing in the Background
Discourse Power is written by Tuvia Gering, a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies’ (INSS) Israel-China Policy Center, a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub, and a Tikvah’s Krauthammer Fellow, specializing in Chinese security and foreign policy, and emergency and disaster management. Any views expressed in this newsletter, as well as any errors, are solely those of the author. Follow Tuvia on Twitter @GeringTuvia